MMA
UFC 107 Thoughts and Predictions: Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo, BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez, Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida, and More
By Kevin Wallace
Dec 12, 2009 - 8:22 AM

The UFC is holding their last event for 2009 and top to bottom this one's pretty darn good.   Let's take a look at the matches and what could happen.

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo

On paper this is a perfect match for Mir...  ON PAPER.   Kongo is perhaps the best striker in the Heavyweight division and unbelievably difficult to finish.   Cain Velasquez slammed the heck out of him and pummeled him with punches for 15 minutes and still wasn’t able to put him away.   Kongo’s kryptonite is his takedown defense which is pretty bad but Mir has never really impressed anyone with his takedowns anyway.   Mir claims to be looking to knock Kongo out and if that is his game plan then he’ll be knocked silly early.   Pulling guard is the most Mir can hope for in this one and this is a terrible idea as Kongo on top will spell the end of the fight quickly.   Mir is a fantastic submission specialist but I don’t see him being able to get Kongo in anything.   Mir has shown improved striking as in the Minotauro fight he finished the legend, something that Fedor, Henderson and countless others have never been able to do but Minotauro had a staph infection and I truly believe if there were a rematch Big Nog would take it.   I got Kongo for the upset in this one by knockout in the 1^st round.   If anyone doubts this I strongly recommend watching Mir vs. Freeman to see how Mir does with a world class striker.   Should be a great match that humbles Mir, something that really needs to be done as even though Brock removed the horseshoe from his ass, he still talks to much.  

UFC Lightweight Championship Match

“The Prodigy” BJ Penn vs. Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez

Sorry Diego, you’re just another victim.   BJ is unbeatable unless your last name is St. Pierre and this fight is going to show why.   BJ is one of the top 5 pound for pound fighters out there with knockout power in his hands which is not all to common with lightweight’s, incredible takedown defense and submissions that could tapout Heavyweights.   Sanchez is probably the most intense fighter out there and his intro’s are always memorable.   With two wins over the likes of Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida under his belt in the Lightweight division, Sanchez is considered to be the top contender to BJ’s throne.   I see this fight going all 5 rounds and being an incredible fight which BJ wins by unanimous decision.   BJ has had problems with his cardio in the past but it seems like that’s been fixed in his most recent fight with Ken Flo and I think the same happens here.   Diego may be able to steal around or two but if he does I think it's mainly due to getting BJ against the cage and wearing him out a little with bodyshots and knees.    GSP and Ken Flo used this strategy and it helped GSP become victorious and even helped Ken Flo a little.   Diego is the gatekeeper of the Lightweight division and should be able to beat any of the UFC Lightweight’s but BJ Penn not so much.   BJ should win this one by unanimous decision.

Paul “The Headhunter” Buentello vs. Stefan Struve

Struve is near 7 feet tall and is primarily a submission specialist with little experience against top notch competition.   Although he’s 2-1 in the UFC his weakness seems to be striking which is the strength of Paul.   Buentello is a veteran with over 30 fights, having taken on the elite in Arlovski, Goodridge and others.   Height advantage or not I don’t see this one going well for Struve as Paul should be able to take him apart with big shots and put him to sleep somewhere in the 1^st or 2^nd round.   Should be another good one.

Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian vs. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida

This is the closest fight on the card in my opinion and either guy could walk away with the victory.   Clay has amazing wrestling and always comes up with a great game plan, unfortunately for him, so does Ken Flo who is coming off a loss to BJ and wants to prove something.   I think Clay controls the fight for the most part trading shots but landing takedown whenever the opportunity presents itself.   Ken Flow has a wide variety of submissions and he’s going to have to have them ready in this one as Clay won't be giving him all that many opportunities.   Ken Flo has found a new training camp with “Yoda” Greg Jackson and I think this fight we see the new Ken Flo.   Clay has a strong chance of staying on top and controlling Ken Flo from the top for 3 rounds straight to grind himself out a decision but I see Ken Flo staying active from the bottom and pulling off a omoplata, armbar or triangle choke for the victory in what should be fight of the night.   This fight should be the most memorable from this card.

Alan “The Talent” Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia

It’s debatable as to who has the better standup but if this one goes to the ground then its Wilson’s.   Both of these guys fight with tons of heart and seem to win fans with each and every fight.   This fight moves the winner into the elite of the Middleweights and the loser may find himself cut from the UFC.   I think Gouveia lands the most punches and stays more active on the ground to win himself a unanimous decision.

Prelims

TJ Grant vs. Kevin Burns-   Grant by split decision

Edgar Garcia vs. Demarques Johnson- Gracia by knockout

Lucio Linhares vs. Roussimar Palhares- Roussimar by decision

Johnny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch- Hendricks by knockout

Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson- Wiman by decision

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce- Fitch by decision

All in all this is top to bottom one heck of a card and any of the undercard that’s added to the main show should be enjoyable as well.   Great way to end the year and January 2^nd, UFC 108 should be a fantastic way to start off 2010.   Enjoy everyone!